"People ask me if the market has fallen enough. To them, I say, based on my analysis of 40 years of stock market behaviour that the fall will generally be 25 to 30 per cent before it rises again. But you can't predict how long that bottom will be before a clear pick-up comes again. Let's not forget what happened post 1993, when we had a long period during which the market didn't pick up at all. Peak to peak, trough to trough should be roughly 48 to 50 months. A simple log-linear trendline on the index can easily tell you what the probabilities are of the indices moving upwards or downwards at any particular time."
Author of 'Hindustani Music: A Tradition in Transition' http://swaratala.blogspot.com/ and the developer of India's first practical mathematical model for IPO valuation
February 8, 6 pm
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4 years ago